Technically, Alsons Consolidated Resources, Inc. (PSE:ACR) price action on 30 March 2015 was a breakout from months of consolidation however, it was a false breakout after a high of 2.36 and closed at 2.14. As of April 7, 2015, $ACR last traded price is 2.04 which is already in the bearish zone in the short term based on ichimoku elements. While in a weekly chart, there is still no sign of bearishness in midterm but seems approaching the bearish zone. Long term trend is still bullish and intact. The support to observe is the low on September 5, 2014 at 1.90 in a weekly chart. However, looking at the daily chart, there are support levels which may bounce back at 1.99, 1.97, 1.94 and 1.91. I don’t expect that the price action may move towards another support at 1.86 both in daily and weekly chart. Range trade is also possible between 2.05 to 1.90.
Fundamentally, the earnings in 2014 as compared to 2013 was not so convincing due to non-recurring income in 2013 that lowers the net income attributable to the parent in 2014 at P0.359B with earning per share of P0.057. With the current price of 2.04, P/E 2014 is high at 35.8.
Based on Company forecast of 2015 net income of P0.613B or EPS at 0.098 at the current price of 2.04/share, P/E 2015 is 20.82. Please note that average Trailing P/E of Power Utilities is around 15 while P/E 2015F average is 17. Therefore, the 2015 Fair Value of ACR should be around the range of 2 to 2.05.
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